Mets set to visit first-place Guardians for three-game series (2024)

Fresh off a brutal weekend in Miami that saw them lose two of three games to the worst team in baseball, the Mets (21-25) head to Cleveland for a three-game series against the American League Central-leading Guardians (30-17), a team that has the fourth-best record in baseball.

The biggest story coming out of the Mets’ losing weekend was that of Edwin Díaz, the superstar closer who has struggled mightily in his recent outings. While the rest of the Mets’ bullpen has performed admirably, long-term success from the relief corps will depend upon Díaz returning to better form. As Ron Darling recently pointed out on a broadcast, it’s probably unfair to compare Díaz’s performance to his historically-great work in 2022. But the Mets do need him to get back to being a good reliever—preferably soon.

While the Mets were shut out in the series opener in Miami, they scored sixteen runs over the last two games of the series, and over their last five games, they’ve averaged 5.4 runs scored per game. Whether or not that’s indicative of an actual improvement at the plate, it’s a little encouraging.

As for Cleveland, with Terry Francona’s eleven-year run as manager having come to an end following his retirement at the end of the 2023 season, the team is now led by manager Stephen Vogt, who is 39 years old and was himself a big league player through the 2022 season.

The Guardians feature a relatively potent offense that has scored 4.85 runs per game, a rate that has them tied with the Yankees for the fifth-best mark in all of baseball. With a 103 wRC+, Cleveland ranks eleventh.

Cleveland has also been very good at run prevention, as their 3.60 runs allowed per game is the fourth-best mark. Guardians starters rank thirteenth in baseball with a 3.84 ERA, but their bullpen has been superb and has a 2.49 ERA that is tied with the Yankees for the best rate in baseball.

As for familiar faces, Amed Rosario is gone, having joined the Rays over the offseason. Andrés Giménez is still with Cleveland, though, and has played second base exclusively despite Rosario’s departure. Still just 25 years old, he’s hitting .277/.337/.387 with three home runs, seven stolen bases, and a 111 wRC+ thus far this year. While he was outstanding in 2022, he had a bit of a down year at the plate in 2023, finishing with a 97 wRC+.

And speaking of players who were involved in the Francisco Lindor trade, Carlos Carrasco is back in Cleveland and won a spot in their rotation out of spring training coming off a very bad season with the Mets last year. The Mets will see him in the second game of this series.

Monday, May 20: Tylor Megill vs. Ben Lively at 6:10 PM on SNY

Megill (2024): 4.0 IP, 4 K, 3 BB, 0 HR, 2.25 ERA, 4.15 FIP, 58 ERA-

Having suffered a shoulder injury after just one start this year, Megill has been out on a rehab assignment and makes his return to the Mets’ rotation tonight. There’s not nearly enough major league data this year to saw how good he’s been, but his last two rehab starts came with Syracuse and offered encouraging results. In 9.1 innings across those two appearances, he notched 13 strikeouts and issued only one walk, and he didn’t allow any runs.

Lively (2024): 32.1 IP, 31 K, 12 BB, 5 HR, 3.06 ERA, 4.36 FIP, 81 ERA-

Over the past few years, Lively has spent time pitching for the Royals, in Korea, and for the Reds’ Triple-A and major league squads. Ahead of this season, he signed a one-year, $750,000 deal with the Guardians that is looking awfully good for the team right now. While he’s not thrown enough innings to be considered qualified among league leaders, Lively ranks 42nd in baseball in ERA out of 131 pitchers who’ve thrown at least 30 innings as a starter.

Tuesday, May 21: Adrian Houser vs. Carlos Carrasco at 6:10 PM on SNY

Houser (2024): 32.2 IP, 17 K, 23 BB, 2 HR, 7.44 ERA, 5.20 FIP, 192 ERA-

Since getting temporarily removed from the Mets’ starting rotation, Houser has only gotten into two games and thrown a total of 4.0 innings. In that time, he’s given up three runs, but just one of them was an earned run, with one strikeout and three walks. Walking more batters than you strike out is never going to work, and he’ll have to start fixing that problem if he’s to be effective in this start or any potential future ones he makes for the Mets.

Carrasco (2024): 45.1 IP, 34 K, 18 BB, 8 HR, 5.16 ERA, 5.34 FIP, 137 ERA-

Things have gone a bit better for Carrasco this year than they did last year, but they still haven’t been going particularly well. An easy player to root for, it seems Carrasco’s time as a good major league starting pitcher might be up. Like last year, he’s not striking out many opposing hitters, sporting a walk rate that’s a little high, and giving up home runs at a high rate.

Wednesday, May 22: Jose Quintana vs. Triston McKenzie at 1:10 PM on SNY

Quintana (2024): 46.2 IP, 32 K, 18 BB, 6 HR, 5.21 ERA, 4.67 FIP, 134 ERA-

Quintana’s season hasn’t gone well, and his numbers will probably take a while to look good following a disastrous start against the Rays earlier this month and a not-so-great one against the Braves that followed it. In his most recent start, however, Quintana went five-and-one-third innings and gave up just two runs to the Phillies. The Mets will need him to at least be decent moving forward, and any injury progress from Kodai Senga or further progress from Mets pitching prospects—like Blade Tidwell, who was just promoted to Syracuse—could put his rotation spot in jeopardy later this season. For now, though, he appears locked in, especially as the Mets are set to give Megill and Houser starts in this series.

McKenzie (2024): 47.1 IP, 40 K, 28 BB, 6 HR, 3.23 ERA, 4.88 FIP, 86 ERA-

After an outstanding season in 2022, McKenzie saw his 2023 season derailed by injuries and threw just 16.0 innings across four starts to poor results. Things have gone much better for the 26-year-old to start this season, though, and through nine starts, his ERA ranks 35th out of 81 qualified starting pitchers.