2024 Yankees Prospects: Week 7 minor league review (2024)

Welcome to the seventh edition of the 2024 weekly minor league roundup, where I review each Yankees affiliate from the week before and the prospects playing there. I keep saying to myself, “This is the week I limit what I type”. As you will soon find out, this is the longest roundup yet at over 2800 words. Sorry, but not sorry. Let’s dig in!

Triple-A Scranton-Wilkes Barre RailRiders

Record: 29-15, 4.5 games up in the International League East after going 2-4 against the Worcester Red Sox

Run differential: +42

Coming up: Home for six games against the Syracuse Mets starting Tuesday, May 21st

This is the first stinker series of the season for the RailRiders, losing four of six to a Worcester squad that’s mostly played uninspired baseball. While the offense was okay, it was yet again the pitching that failed the RailRiders (6.94 ERA last week, third highest in the International League). A big contributor to that ERA was Will Warren, who had his second terrible start of the season on Tuesday evening. The top prospect allowed eight runs - all earned - off nine hits in just four innings pitched. I mentioned this in my piece last Friday, but Warren’s pitches move so much that it can work to his detriment when he doesn’t have precise command.

Clayton Beeter, well, beat hitters over four shutout innings on Wednesday with what we’ll call an extreme case of effective wildness, propelling the RailRiders to a rare 1-0 win. He walked five - nothing to see there - but punched out just three batters. It was a grind for Beeter, though his ERA left unscathed. Though he was the best starting pitcher in this series, a more accurate depiction is he was their least ineffective starter.

Scranton’s offense wasn’t terrible by any means, scoring around the league average with 32 runs over their six games last week. Oscar Gonzalez is really making a case to be one of the next outfielders called up in the event of an injury. I know he isn’t on the 40-man roster like Everson Pereira, but there seem to be real adjustments he’s made to his offensive approach.

Gonzalez was incredibly swing-happy throughout his tenure in Cleveland’s system, consistently generating walk rates in the low single digits. Throughout the spring and his abbreviated stint in the minors so far, though, he’s become more selective without reducing his swing rate inside the zone (that’s a good thing). Additionally, the 26-year-old Dominican is lifting and hitting the ball hard more often. While this is a small sample size alert, many of the attributes I just pointed to normalize quicker than you’d think. If Gonzalez keeps this up for a couple more weeks, I think we could enter the-Yankees-did-it-again territory.

In all, seven RailRiders batters had OPS figures above .850 in this series, including newcomer Taylor Trammell who can finally settle into a situation without having to look over his back, wondering if or when he’ll be DFA’d again. I would note that both the Yankees and Dodgers made claims on Trammell. When smart front offices claim the same player off waivers from each other, it’s something I like to put in the back of my head and come back to in time.

Double-A Somerset Patriots

Record: 19-19, 1.5 GB in the Eastern League Northeast after going 3-3 against the Portland Sea Dogs (Red Sox)

Run differential: +15

Coming up: Away for six games against the New Hampshire Fisher Cats starting Tuesday, May 21st

Somerset comes away with a series split despite outscoring the Sea Dogs by seven runs throughout the series. A deeper dive shows this series was impressive on both ends for the Patriots, with the squad scoring the fourth-most runs in the Eastern League and the pitching staff surrendering a sterling 2.83 ERA.

Trystan Vrieling had a tale of two starts in this series, getting the nod on both Tuesday and Sunday. Vrieling, frankly, had by far his worst start of the season on Tuesday, allowing nine runs in 4.2 innings. It was his fourth uneven start in a row, though I’d encourage you to look at the walk and home run rates in that span. I’m not saying all runs scored off him in that stretch were poor fortune, but it’s not like Vrieling completely lost command of the strike zone or didn’t have the same stuff he showed in April. His start on Sunday went a long way in proving my hypothesis correct, as he looked like the April version of himself that generated a pristine 1.88 ERA. Across his 5.1 innings of work, the Gonzaga product allowed no runs, no walks, five hits, and punched out five. This is the Trystan Vrieling we like to see.

If I had one quibble with Vrieling, it’s that doesn’t have a go-to pitch against lefties. He has both a four- and two-seamer which he’s comfortable throwing, but the two-seamer isn’t meant to be a swing-and-miss offering; rather a pitch lefties pound into the ground (which they have). When he’s been off, it’s usually when his two-seamer isn’t being located well against lefties. Alas, Vrieling’s splits tell the story better than I could: righties have a hilariously low .452 OPS against, whereas lefties sport an OPS more than 300 points higher at .754. If you’re looking for a pitcher currently in the bigs who resembles Vrieling, it could be Mariners starter Bryan Woo, who’s nearly unhittable against righties but far more susceptible to lefties. Ugh, I didn’t mean for this to become an abbreviated scouting report on Vrieling, but his season has been an interesting one and I’m sure it leaves some fans wondering who he is.

Zach Messinger continues to show why ERA does some pitchers an injustice, as ~ 98% of his pitches thrown this season can be categorized as having a good outcome. One fewer mistake pitch here and one fewer mistake pitch there could have Messinger’s 3.83 ERA much lower. His Friday night start against the Sea Dogs was another dazzling one, coming in at six innings, two runs (one earned), four hits, one walk, and three strikeouts. While his stuff isn’t quite on the level of Vrieling, he does have an offspeed pitch that’s been effective against lefties. Blayne Abeyta had a solid outing last week and continued his season of high highs and low lows. Brock Selvidge gave up two dingers and surrendered five earned runs over his six innings of work on Thursday, though he did punch out eight.

Agustin Ramirez is just that dude. I will now be referring to him as El Buldog. Seriously, I don’t have anything else to say at this point. Just look at the stats for yourself. Appreciate them, and understand that what we’re witnessing in Somerset is everything we love about minor league baseball. Sure, the wins and losses matter to some extent, but we’re watching a player break out before our very eyes, further solidifying his case as one of the preeminent breakout prospects in all of minor league baseball. We appreciate his story of being a low-dollar figure signing and how people wrote him off because he was older. Ramirez, essentially, embodies many qualities on the field that we should be as fortunate to live out in our daily lives. Boy, I’m just rambling today. Anyway, enjoy the videos below. You can’t get this sort of entertainment on Disney Plus, especially not for free:

^ 20th best prospect, lol. We know ball!

Alright, now for the Spencer Jones discourse. Did he have a terrible week sporting an OPS below .350? Yes. Am I worried? No. Look, players at this size are prone to struggling for a bit, but the peak they can reach when things are on is flat-out special. Jones doesn’t look lost at the plate, he’s not whiffing like Everson Pereira in Triple-A, and he’s still hitting the ball hard. He’s barely a month into his season, mind you. High-A to Double-A is the single largest jump in talent from one affiliate to the next, so I’m not surprised Jones is still making adjustments against pitchers who have an idea of where their pitches are going. R-E-L-A-X.

Benjamin Cowles is quietly putting together an outstanding season for Somerset and that continued with his 1.021 OPS last week. He won my Player of the Week award in a previous weekly roundup, though I noted that the three homers he slugged in Reading might be fugazi since Reading is one of the most hitter-friendly environments in baseball. Well, he hasn’t hit a home run since then, but he’s producing in other ways. His power is still comfortably below average, but he’s the next utilityman with good bat-to-ball the Yankees seemed to have developed alongside Caleb Durbin.

High-A Hudson Valley Renegades

Record: 19-17, 2.5 GB in the South Atlantic League League North after going 4-2 against the Jersey Shore Blue Claws (Phillies)

Run differential: +16

Coming up: Away for six games against the Brooklyn Cyclones (Mets) starting Tuesday, May 21st

The Renegades had a nice bounce-back series against a very good Blue Claws squad after going 1-5 in several hard-fought battles versus Aberdeen. They scored the most runs in the South Atlantic League last week (44), which was important given their 5.07 team ERA. Jace Avina had a huge week and I think it’s about time I mention him.

Avina was in the deal that sent Jake Bauers to the Brew Crew, who’ve effectively leveraged him as a strong-side platoon bat. Avina, meanwhile, had huge strikeout numbers but equally impressive numbers beyond that in Milwaukee’s system. His whiff rates never lined up with a guy striking out 30-plus percent of the time, though. Like Spencer Jones, his strikeout rates were buoyed by extreme passivity in the zone and a hole low-and-away. Fast forward to today and he’s still striking out a good bit, but there’s some legitimate game power that teeters above average. While I still have him graded as a 45-overall prospect - a future bench projection - that’s admittedly higher than where he was evaluated in the offseason.

Jared Serna just keeps producing, as his 1.152 OPS and two homers over this series would suggest. At this point, I’m seriously pondering a placement within the top 10 of the system. There’s a ton to like: he has a beautiful swing that results in amazing bat-to-ball ability. His emphasis on contact hasn’t sapped him of power. If anything, his leg kick adjustment from last winter seems to have allowed him to time non-fastballs better and generate legitimately average power. I say only average power because he doesn’t have as much opposite-field power as you’d like from someone with an above-average grade. Nonetheless, we might have a 6-hit, 5-power, 6-glove shortstop prospect on our hands. That’s... a very good prospect.

Overall, the Renegades had five players with OPS’ north of 1.000 and seven above .800. That’s, uh, really good. The pitching, meanwhile, struggled as we alluded to before. Sebastian Keane had the best outing on the staff, going seven one-run innings on Friday albeit with less whiff than he’s accustomed to generating. Other than that, there wasn’t much else worth writing about. Kyle Carr is easily the largest disappointment in the farm thus far, and Cam Schlittler, who’s been amazing, had a so-so outing that ballooned his ERA to... 2.03.

Low-A Tampa Tarpons

Record: 14-25, 10 GB in the Florida State League West after going 4-2 against the Bradenton Marauders (Pirates)

Run differential: -38

Coming up: Away for six games against the Jupiter Hammerheads (Marlins) starting Tuesday, May 21st

Tampa is a bad FSL team. They did, however, win a series against another bad FSL team in the Bradenton Marauders with the help of someone you may have heard of. That’s right, the second-ranked prospect in the system, Jasson Domínguez, began his rehab assignment with the Tarpons and led the way with a .991 OPS across his four games played.

Third baseman Hans Montero had a huge week for the Tarpons, highlighted by his .400/.471/1.000 slash line. He recently made his season debut and has displayed very impressive loft and bat speed. Unsurprisingly, though, he’s also whiffing a ton. But when you can do things like this, you have my attention:

Although some credit has to be given to the Tampa pitching staff for their effort last week, I’d like to pump the breaks on saying this was all their doing. Bradenton strikes out a lot. Like, a lot a lot, and that carried into this series when they struck out an astounding 71 times and scored just 19 runs in the 6 games against the Tarpons. That’s not to say there weren’t some impressive individual displays, though. Luis Serna had his second consecutive marvelous start, going six scoreless while allowing just three hits and punching out seven. I’m beginning to realize how dependent Serna is on his changeup since the rest of his arsenal is suboptimal. In a way, he’s similar to Brock Selvidge in that both rely on one plus pitch to carry the rest of their below-average arsenals. The additional issue with Serna is his command, which isn’t on par with Selvidge (he is younger, though).

Cade Smith has somewhat come back to earth, though I don’t think he’ll be in Tampa for much longer. The biggest news for Tampa, however, may not involve someone on their roster right now: Henry Lalane, who I ranked as the fourth-best Yankees prospect in the offseason, has resumed his throwing program and could make his affiliated debut relatively soon. EXCITING!

Florida Complex League Yankees

Record: 5-6, 1 game up in the Florida Complex League North after going 1-4 last week

Run differential: -13

The complex team’s had a rough go of it in the last week, particularly the pitching staff. Over their last four games, the group has surrendered a 9.90 ERA, more than a run per inning. In that span, they’ve struck out just two more batters than they’ve walked (30 & 28, respectively). They’ve also allowed seven homers, which is tied for the most surrendered along the FCL Astros. It’s been pretty ugly all around the pitching staff... less Sabier Marte. Marte tossed another 2.2 innings last week in a piggyback effort and surrendered no runs on one hit, two walks, and 4 K’s. He is the most talented pitching prospect on this roster by a fairly wide margin. Keep an eye on Omar Gonzalez, who had a standout 2022 DSL campaign but mightily struggled after coming stateside last year. He had a nasty changeup but lost all feel for commanding his entire arsenal last season. It’ll be interesting to see if that’s remedied in 2024.

The offense, while not as underwhelming, still scored a disappointing 14 runs in 4 games played over the last seven days. That may not seem so disappointing at first glance, but the FCL tends to be hitter-friendly since many pitchers have very poor command of, well, everything. Their 14 runs placed them 14th out of 15 FCL teams, with the Blue Jays in last with 5 runs scored in 3 games - yikes. Brian Sanchez is the only prospect who I’d deem had a good week at the plate, sporting a .972 OPS across four games. Sanchez was the other prospect acquired along with fellow weekly standout Jace Avina in the Jake Bauers deal. He swung and missed way too much in the DSL last season, but there’s some athleticism in the box and outfield that you’ll never say no to as a lottery ticket acquisition.

In other exciting news, top outfield prospect Brando Mayea was activated off the 7-day injured list yesterday and will get into game action in short order. Refer to my piece a couple of weeks back which highlights why I’m excited to watch Mayea and the previously mentioned Sabier Marte.

Prospect of the Week: Jace Avina

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

I was tempted to go with El Buldog or Jared Serna, but we’ll give it to the guy who hasn’t previously been given some love. I find the price Milwaukee paid for a very limited player in Jake Bauers to be quite high. It’s not that I expect Avina or Sanchez to be huge stars one day, but each has a plausible upside case. In any event, Avina is having about as good of a start to his Yankees organization tenure as one could’ve dreamt up.